{"id":2395,"date":"2015-03-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2015-03-22T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.caixaresearch.org\/?p=2395"},"modified":"2020-05-05T08:34:13","modified_gmt":"2020-05-05T08:34:13","slug":"quan-el-futur-ens-atrapi-el-subtil-poder-de-la-prospectiva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.caixaresearch.org\/ca\/quan-el-futur-ens-atrapi-el-subtil-poder-de-la-prospectiva\/","title":{"rendered":"Quan el futur ens atrapi: el subtil poder de la prospectiva"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

Post de Jordi Aloy i Dom\u00e8nech, \u00c0rea de Ci\u00e8ncia i Medi Ambient d’Obra Social “la Caixa”<\/span><\/p>\n

El futur, com se sol dir, \u00e9s on passarem la resta de les nostres vides. Per aix\u00f2, el que pugui passar en el futur ha atret poderosament la imaginaci\u00f3 dels \u00e9ssers humans al llarg de tots els temps. Per\u00f2, es pot predir el futur? En termes absoluts, no, per\u00f2 avui dia disposem dels mitjans per poder fer prediccions raonables sobre com pot ser l’avenir. La t\u00e8cnica que utilitzem, basada en el m\u00e8tode cient\u00edfic, s’anomena \u00abprospectiva<\/a>\u00bb. A grans trets, aquesta t\u00e8cnica treballa de la manera seg\u00fcent: primer s’observa com ha evolucionat un determinat \u00e0mbit fins al moment actual \u2014les anomenades tend\u00e8ncies\u2014 i tot seguit es construeixen models matem\u00e0tics que extrapolen l’evoluci\u00f3 d’aquestes tend\u00e8ncies cap al futur. Aix\u00ed, segons els par\u00e0metres que es considerin en els models i els valors que se’ls atorgui, es construeix tot un ventall de \u00abfuturs possibles\u00bb, cadascun d’ells amb una determinada probabilitat que pugui fer-se realitat. L’escenari m\u00e9s probable estad\u00edsticament ser\u00e0 el futur cap a on, aparentment, ens dirigim.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ara b\u00e9, per m\u00e9s probable que sembli un determinat escenari, aix\u00f2 no vol dir que s’hagi de fer realitat per for\u00e7a, perqu\u00e8 el futur el constru\u00efm entre tots, dia rere dia, i \u00e9s el resultat de la suma de totes les nostres decisions i accions individuals. Per\u00f2 llavors, ens preguntarem, de qu\u00e8 serveix la prospectiva? Fixem-nos en una q\u00fcesti\u00f3 clau: si les t\u00e8cniques prospectives ens adverteixen que ens encaminem amb un alt grau de probabilitat cap a un futur negatiu, podem prendre decisions que ens permetin canviar de rumb abans que aquest futur negatiu esdevingui una realitat. Aquest \u00e9s el veritable poder de la prospectiva!<\/p>\n

L’exposici\u00f3 \u00abExperiment Any 2100. Qu\u00e8 ens espera a la Terra del futur?<\/a>\u00bb, organitzada per l’\u00c0rea de Ci\u00e8ncia<\/a> i Medi Ambient d’Obra Social “la Caixa”<\/a> i que podeu visitar a CosmoCaixa<\/a> Barcelona fins al primer trimestre de l’any 2016, tracta precisament sobre la prospectiva i sobre les previsions de futur basades en aquesta t\u00e8cnica. Concretament, l’exposici\u00f3 ens mostra com pot evolucionar el m\u00f3n en els \u00e0mbits social, mediambiental i tecnol\u00f2gic al llarg del segle XXI, i es basa en un document elaborat per l’Ag\u00e8ncia Europea del Medi Ambient<\/a> titulat The European Environment, State and Outlook 2010.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

El nucli de l’exposici\u00f3 explica quins s\u00f3n els escenaris de futur m\u00e9s probables en cadascun dels \u00e0mbits esmentats i analitza les anomenades megatend\u00e8ncies, \u00e9s a dir, les grans tend\u00e8ncies que es van conformant lentament i que influeixen de manera decisiva en la societat. Per\u00f2 l’exposici\u00f3 va un pas m\u00e9s enll\u00e0. Com el seu t\u00edtol indica, tamb\u00e9 est\u00e0 pensada com a experiment sociol\u00f2gic. Mitjan\u00e7ant un seguit de m\u00f2duls interactius, els visitants poden expressar les seves opinions sobre els diferents reptes que el futur ens planteja. D’aquesta manera es va conformant un escenari de futur propi, basat en el parer del p\u00fablic. Aquesta imatge evoluciona a temps real a mesura que l’exposici\u00f3 rep nous visitants i els resultats s’aniran mostrant en una gran pantalla.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

La major part dels models ens indiquen que ens dirigim cap a un futur que ens presentar\u00e0 grans reptes. Per\u00f2 com ja hem mencionat abans, malgrat el que diguin els models, el futur realment no est\u00e0 escrit. Resultar\u00e0 interessant veure quin futur perfilem entre tots en aquest \u00abExperiment Any 2100\u00bb!<\/p>\n

M\u00e9s informaci\u00f3:<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
Exposici\u00f3 \u00abExperiment Any 2100. Qu\u00e8 ens espera a la Terra del futur?\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/body><\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

Post de Jordi Aloy i Dom\u00e8nech, \u00c0rea de Ci\u00e8ncia i Medi Ambient d’Obra Social “la Caixa”<\/p>\n

El futur, com se sol dir, \u00e9s on passarem la resta de les nostres vides. Per aix\u00f2, el que pugui passar en el futur ha atret poderosament la imaginaci\u00f3 dels \u00e9ssers humans al llarg de tots els temps. Per\u00f2, es pot predir el futur? En termes absoluts, no, per\u00f2 avui dia disposem dels mitjans per poder fer prediccions raonables sobre com pot ser l’avenir. La t\u00e8cnica que utilitzem, basada en el m\u00e8tode cient\u00edfic, s’anomena \u00abprospectiva<\/a>\u00bb. A grans trets, aquesta t\u00e8cnica treballa de la manera seg\u00fcent: primer s’observa com ha evolucionat un determinat \u00e0mbit fins al moment actual \u2014les anomenades tend\u00e8ncies\u2014 i tot seguit es construeixen models matem\u00e0tics que extrapolen l’evoluci\u00f3 d’aquestes tend\u00e8ncies cap al futur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[520],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-divulgacio-cientifica"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQuan el futur ens atrapi: el subtil poder de la prospectiva - Blog CaixaCi\u00e8ncia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.caixaresearch.org\/ca\/quan-el-futur-ens-atrapi-el-subtil-poder-de-la-prospectiva\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Quan el futur ens atrapi: el subtil poder de la prospectiva - Blog CaixaCi\u00e8ncia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Post de Jordi Aloy i Dom\u00e8nech, \u00c0rea de Ci\u00e8ncia i Medi Ambient d’Obra Social “la Caixa” El futur, com se sol dir, \u00e9s on passarem la resta de les nostres vides. 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